On Today's Jobs Report

I hate being skeptical.  It generally causes people to look at you like you're weird and maybe even a little crazy.  As a conservative in politics, it makes people think that you just hate the president or are just pessimistic.  And yet I heard today's jobs report and it confuses the heck out of me.

On the one hand, the U3 unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%.  Sounds like good news, right?  The economy is rebounding, good times are ahead!  Then I found out the economy added a grand total of 114,000 jobs.

In previous months, such a number was unlikely to budge the number by .1%, let alone .3%.  Indeed, most of the time the number shifts at all is due to people leaving the workforce and therefore not being counted in the U3 number that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases.  I was even further confused when the U6 unemployment rate, which includes people who are underemployed (part-time) and discouraged (dropped out of the work force entirely) remained steady at 14.7%.

So the question is, why has there been a significant drop in the U3 number if the amount of jobs added, by all accounts, is just as paltry as in previous months?

 From what I understand, it is due to a sharp increase in part-time employment, or people settling for jobs beneath their capabilities or needs.  For years, the primary economic indicator used by the BLS is that U3 number I've been referring to.  And as I'm sure some of you caught, that does not include people who have stopped looking for work and those who want full employment, but can't find it.  The fact of the matter is, the economy has only marginally improved since President Obama took office.  Unemployment is really a full seven points greater than what we're being told.  Even if the underemployed are discounted, the unemployment rate is still 10.7%.

And if you still don't believe me, ask yourself: have things gotten significantly better in the past three months?  Can an actual improvement in the economy explain this jump?  Gas is still high.  The fiscal cliff is still looming.  Obamacare/Affordable Care Act is still threatening businesses' bottom lines.

While I don't believe, like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, that the numbers were rigged, I do believe they are being presented in a way to benefit the president.  I'm not a believer in coincidences; the more timely the "coincidence," the more I believe it planned or fraudulent. 

At best, this report is a statistical aberration that will get revised later.  The drop in the U3 percentage neither fits the pattern of the past few months or the number of jobs created.  At worst, it is indeed a lie, timed to boost the president a month out from the election, after anemic and pathetic growth numbers the past few years.  I favor the former.

For some more (and likely superior) analysis of today's numbers, check out this analysis from the American Enterprise Institute.